Incyte 4Q 2014 Notes

Just a few notes from the latest quarterly conference call. For the company, it seems 2015 will be a year to set up an eventful 2016 rather than being an exciting year in and of itself.


And so, in no particular order:


  1. On the PV front, their estimates for the addressable population appears to be roughly equal to the myelofibrosis population of around 25000. Nonetheless, the expectation is that take-up will be slow as this patient population is ripe for a watchful-waiting approach rather than a quick-get-them-on-this-drug approach. Therefore, strong sales in PV would be an upside to their 525-565 million 2015 net product revenue. I don’t expect strong sales in that indication to materialize.
  2. The FGFr inhibitor, INCB54828, is an FGFr1, 2 and 3 inhibitor.
  3. Of the two PI3Kd inhibitors, they’re calling INCB40093 highly selective whereas INCB50465 is being termed a Delta inhibitor. They note that in the preclinical models, the profile of INCB50465 is clean enough to dose at high levels, but the biological relevance of dosing to 99%+++ inhibition of the target remains unclear to me.
  4. It was noted that there will be no milestone payments received from Eli Lilly during 2015. With the remaining phase 3 trials of baricitinib in RA due to read out this year, the comment suggests that there will be no NDA filing in 2015 (provided results merit one). Perhaps not too surprising, but nonetheless suggests no baricitinib related revenue until late 2016, if at all.
  5. They will initiate an INCB39110 + Gemzar + Abraxane trial in first line pancreatic cancer later this year. The only reason this was interesting is for the lack of mention of any CRP related enrollment or stratification. Others will note that there are currently two Janus trials testing ruxolitinib in pancreatic cancer using CRP levels as part of the enrollment criteria. Perhaps CRP wasn’t mentioned for this INCB39110 trial because it is still at an exploratory stage. Nonetheless, it merits attention.